New Poll: Charest ahead of PQ in Quebec...

[Hux]

I have tempered optimism about federal Liberal fortunes in light of this poll, I realize Harper is fluffing Charest these days, but this poll indicates the "Liberal" brand may not be fatally wounded in the province. Of course the Prov/Fed Libs are different, but I am optimistic.

Quebec's Liberals eclipse PQ in new poll

Good-news announcements by Charest appear to turn the tide

INGRID PERITZ and BRIAN LAGHI AND RHÉAL SÉGUIN

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

MONTREAL, OTTAWA and QUEBEC — A public-opinion poll is breathing new life into Quebec Premier Jean Charest's Liberal government, giving his party, which is in full pre-election mode, a lead over the Parti Québécois for the first time in almost three years.

Mr. Charest remains Quebec's least popular politician, according to the poll, and voter disapproval of his government remains high at 59 per cent. Nonetheless, the poll was the first indication that the tide could be turning in the Liberals' favour.

The Leger Marketing poll, conducted from June 22 to 25 and published in yesterday's Journal de Montréal, found support for the Liberals had climbed to 37 per cent from 32 per cent in March. Support for the PQ fell to 33 per cent from 43 per cent.

The Action Démocratique du Québec party received support from 17 per cent of decided voters polled and the new left-wing Quebec Solidaire party received 6 per cent. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

A beaming Mr. Charest would not comment directly on the poll results, but he did link them to his government's achievements in health care, education and finance. He said the recent upgrading of the province's credit rating has saved taxpayers millions of dollars in interest payments.

"Our government has worked hard to improve the situation in Quebec," he told reporters in Montreal when asked about the poll. "It's like taking a business that's in bad shape and putting it back together again."

Mr. Charest said last week that he was not considering calling an election this fall -- one year earlier than expected -- and yesterday he refused to be pinned down on an election date. But the poll numbers fuelled speculation that a snap election was still part of his government's scenarios.

Mr. Charest made the comment after delivering another good-news announcement -- a $105-million concert hall for the Montreal Symphony Orchestra. The concert-hall project has suffered from a series of false starts for decades.

The concert-hall announcement -- coupled with the popular Green Plan to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, the recent pay-equity settlement in the public sector and the close ties between Mr. Charest and Prime Minister Stephen Harper -- may be finally paying political dividends for the Charest government.

Mr. Harper's Quebec lieutenant, Senator Michael Fortier, said he has no doubt that the poll confirms the rising fortunes of federalist forces in Quebec.

"We are doing our best to manage the affairs of the federal state. . . . People in Quebec are happy and in our own polling we can see that. Mr. Charest is doing his own thing and in his own polling it appears he is doing well and kudos to him," Mr. Fortier said yesterday.

Tories said yesterday that the Harper-Charest relationship can be beneficial to both men, but it can cause great political harm as well.

"Each gives the other a half-measure of equal opportunity and a half-measure of equal danger," said a senior Conservative who asked not to be identified.

Mr. Charest, for example, benefits from the fact that he appears to have some clout with Mr. Harper, who can deliver on promises such as giving Quebec a greater role on international issues and on more resources for the province.

The risk for Mr. Harper is the possibility of a rebound effect in the rest of the country if it's perceived that the Tories are giving too much attention to Quebec.

"It's the old PC trap of being too close to Quebec and that hurting your chances in other parts of the country," said the source.

Meanwhile, it does not appear that Mr. Charest has boosted Mr. Harper's popularity in Quebec. A recent poll by the Strategic Counsel indicates the Tories have the support of 25 per cent of Quebec voters, exactly the same number as on election day.

Nonetheless, experts are somewhat mystified that Mr. Harper's support in the province remains as high as it does, given Ottawa's plans to scrap the Kyoto greenhouse-gas accord and its decision to forge ahead with a vote to revisit same-sex marriage. Both the Kyoto accord and the decision to allow gays to marry are popular in Quebec.