NEW POLL: "Teflon Dion" puts up some big Quebec numbers

[Hux]

LÉGER-JOURNAL DE MONTRÉAL-CANOË-TVA POLL

TODAY

BQ 37%

Lib 35%

Cons 17%

NDP 6%

Grn 5%

ELECTION '06

BQ 42%

Lib 21%

Cons 25%

NDP 7.5%

Grn 4%

[phishtaper]

a colleague is a separatist and he argued that Dion is so unpopular in quebec that his assention will only serve to fuel the separatist movement. this would seem to suggest otherwise. let me go rub his nose in it, hehe

[Hux]

Nice - enjoy!

[d_rawk]

... let the pundits eat crow.

I'm interested to read Chantal Hebert's backpeddling on all of this.

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doesn't every party get a bump after a convention? how much positive coverage did the liberals get last week for a national convention held in Quebec, compared to the NDP or Cons?

[d_rawk]

They do, absolutely. In another thread I said that I thought the post-convention bump would be even higher than it was.

The story with the two polls so far (three actually, Decima released one today that hasn't been talked about here) is with the Quebec numbers though. The common wisdom was that Dion hasn't sold, doesn't sell, and can't ever sell in Quebec. But that is where he is polling highest, even over the significant post-convention Ontario bump, and that is where they know him best.

If the commentators had been correct, we would expect to see the Quebec numbers drop (because of a visceral reaction to Dion), or at best see a very very minimal honeymoon increase in polling in that province, even while it spiked elsewhere. It's Chretien all over again. (not to suggest that Dion's Liberals are going to pull in three consecutive majority governments or anything ...)

[Hux]

Below is some data circulated on past convention bumps, but I think d_rawk is right on the Quebec #'s, bump aside - they were suprising and went against the predictions of most pundits.

Post-NDP convention, December 2, 1989: Support among decided voters for Prime Minister Brian Mulroney's party remained at the same 26 per cent it registered in November, but in the survey taken just days after Audrey McLaughlin won the NDP leadership, the New Democrats moved up three points to 28 per cent edging out the Tories for second place.

Post-Liberal convention June 23, 1990: The Liberals would receive 31 per cent of the votes, down four percentage points from June, when the party was without a leader.

Post-PC convention, June 13, 1993: A CTV-Maclean's magazine snap survey conducted after Campbell's win Sunday found that 37 per cent thought she would make the best prime minister. But the Angus Reid poll of 800 adults also showed her party would still trail the Liberals by 10 percentage points if an election were held today.

Post-NDP convention, October 14, 1995: NDP support was virtually unchanged by last month's election of a new leader, Alexa McDonough.

Post-PC convention, November 14, 1998: Joe Clark's return as Tory leader had little immediate effect on public support for the party, suggests an opinion poll conducted earlier this month. The Gallup survey pegged Tory support at 16 per cent, which the polling company said is about the same level the Tories have been at for 18 months.

Post-CA convention, July 8, 2000: The Canadian Alliance picked up virtually no new support from voters since April, despite saturation media coverage of its four-month leadership campaign, according to a new Environics Inc. poll, The Globe and Mail reported Thursday.

Post-CA convention, March 20, 2002: Environics Research's survey of 1,923 voters shows the Alliance failed to get a bump in the polls from their leadership race as the party remains stuck at 14 per cent support nationally. "Given that the polling was done right at the peak of the leadership contest, it is surprising to me that they did not get a four to five point bump,'' Environics vice-president Chris Baker said. While other parties have seen leadership contests translate into jumps of as much as 12 points in the polls, Baker said the lack of interest the race won by Harper generated among Canadian voters is clearly evident in the survey results.

Post-NDP convention, January 25, 2003: Jack Layton's leadership victory last month and public concern about the prospects for a war in Iraq have driven the New Democratic Party to second spot behind the Liberals in a new poll, with 17 per cent support… The EKOS poll is the latest to show progress by the NDP, which had 11 per cent support in December, and 14 in January, when Layton, a long-time Toronto city councillor, won the leadership.

Post-PC convention, May 31, 2003: New Tory Leader Peter MacKay has some work to do to gain the attention of voters. An Ipsos-Reid poll suggests two-thirds of Canadians have “no impression†of MacKay. That's despite his controversial win at the Tory leadership convention a week ago. Even among Tory supporters, MacKay has a tough time registering, with 53 per cent of those asked having “no impression†of their new leader. The Tories have just 15 per cent support, the Alliance 14 per cent, the N-D-P 11 and the Bloc Quebecois nine.

Post-Liberal convention, November 14, 2003: There are a few surprises tonight in the first CTV-Globe and Mail public opinion poll since the Liberal leadership convention. The Ipsos-Reid survey indicates shifting political allegiances. The poll has the Liberals with 43 percent support, down slightly, but still a comfortable lead.

Post-Conservative convention, March 20, 2004: On the heels of a Conservative Party leadership convention, crown corporation head firings, new rules for scrutiny and whistle blowing, pre-budget assistance to western farmers, and a new budget, many speculated the log-jam in federal party support would break. But, according to the latest Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, the party support numbers are virtually the same as where they were just prior to the budget in early March. Currently the Liberals stand at 38% (exactly where they were in our release of March 8th 2004) among decided voters, the Conservatives follow at 27% (up 1 point), the New Democratic Party at 15% (down 2 points), the Bloc Quebecois at 10% (44% in Quebec, down 5 points), and the Green Party at 5%

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thanks for the info dudes, that's interesting indeed.

[d_rawk]

New EKOS Research national poll:

LPC - 40.1%

CPC - 33.5%

NDP - 10.2%

Bloc - 8.2%

GPC - 7.6%

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Dion, the Liberals' newly crowned leader, is being well received in his home province of Quebec despite his reputation as a staunch federalist, Graves said.

"It's just the opposite of what many predicted. Quebecers are reacting to Dion as a favourite son. It is too early to say whether this sentiment will last. At the same time, he may have potential to win over people in the rest of the country as they get to know him better."

link

[Hux]

It seems the Cons were preparing for Iggy or Bob, and now all they have left in the tar-bag is Dion's dual citizenship, not sure attacking that will reverse the "favourite son" trends in Quebec....maybe if Momma Dion were born in Arkansas or something, but France...not so sure.

[d_rawk]

Close Politcal Race Developing in Quebec

The article is a bit fucked up, though, as in the introductary paragraph it suggests that the Liberals are trailing the PQ, but it the breakdown, it suggests that the PQ are trailing the Libs. Leger Marketing hasn't updated their website to see which is which. 1% difference, though, so either way it is shaping up to be a tight race.

Liberal Party of Quebec

36% (or is it 35%?)

Parti Québécois

35% (or is it 36%?)

Action démocratique du Québec

20%

Québec solidaire

7%

"Quebec should not be afraid and I think Quebec is on the threshold of taking the beau risque [beautiful risk] of autonomy." - Boisclair

I guess this doesn't really belong in this thread, come to think of it. Just didn't want to start another poll thread.

[Hux]

Very interesting....

[d_rawk]

New Ipsos Reid

Liberals - 36% (down 2%)

Conservatives - 34% (up 2%)

NDP - 13% (unchanged)

Bloc - 10% (down 1%)

Greens - 5% (unchanged)