The Singularity

[zero]

In futures studies, a technological singularity (often the Singularity) is a predicted future event believed to precede immense technological progress in an unprecedentedly brief time. Futurologists give varying predictions as to the extent of this progress, the speed at which it occurs, and the exact cause and nature of the event itself.

One school of thought centers around the writings of Vernor Vinge, in which he examines what I. J. Good (1965) described earlier as an “intelligence explosion.†Good predicts that if artificial intelligence reaches equivalence to human intelligence, it will soon become capable of augmenting its own intelligence with increasing effectiveness, far surpassing human intellect. In the 1980s, Vinge dubbed this event “the Singularity†and popularized the idea with lectures, essays, and science fiction. Vinge argues the Singularity will occur following creation of strong AI or sufficiently advanced intelligence amplification technologies such as brain-computer interfaces.

Another school, promoted heavily by Ray Kurzweil, claims that technological progress follows a pattern of exponential growth, suggesting rapid technological change in the 21st century and the singularity occurring in 2045. Kurzweil considers the advent of superhuman intelligence to be part of an overall exponential trend in human technological development seen originally in Moore’s Law and extrapolated into a general trend in Kurzweil’s own Law of Accelerating Returns.

While some regard the Singularity as a positive event and work to hasten its arrival, others view it as dangerous or undesirable. The most practical means for initiating the Singularity are debated, as are how (or whether) it can be influenced or avoided if dangerous.

The Singularity is also frequently depicted in science fiction.

[bradm]

I was waiting for you to bring this up.

One key thing about The Singularity (as Vinge uses the concept) is that it's impossible to know what goes on past/beyond it. A similar shift/gap happened when homo sapiens developed language and sentience; it's impossible, for example, for you to explain to a dog what it's like to use language. Similarly, a post-Singularity entity (e.g., an augmented human) can't explain to you what it's like to live in his/its world.

This gave Vinge an intersting problem: if you're a pre-Singularity writer, how do you write about events (i.e., set stories) after The Singularity? Vinge's solution to this was interesting: he imagined the galaxy having areas (what he called the "zones of though") that differed when it came to what was possible. In some areas, faster-than-light travel and strong AI was possible; in others, things got slower and dumber. The main vehicle for this idea was his (astoundingly good, IMO) novel A Fire Upon The Deep. It's a heavy book (almost two books in one, really; there are two very different plot lines that converge at the end), but is one of those galaxy-spanning novels (similar in scope to Delany's Stars in My Pocket Like Grains of Sand) whose scope can leave you breathless.

Aloha,

Brad

[SevenSeasJim]

While some regard the Singularity as a positive event and work to hasten its arrival, others view it as dangerous or undesirable.

I'm on the fence with this. I could fall either way.

[SevenSeasJim]

[zero]

I guess the character of Gunberk Braun in Rainbows End is a post-Singularity phenomena. Or at least the idea of Braun's character is that he's deeply enmeshed with the intelligence technology available to him (which is extensive because he is a very important intelligence officer). He moves nations from his computer terminal is the party line on Braun. This characterization I think fits with what I know of Vinge's theories around the Singularity. We are quickly moving as I understand it to a point where men enmeshed with technology are akin to demi-gods. Hook me up.

[bradm]

I wonder if "The Dubularity" would be a good band name...

Aloha,

Brad

[zero]

My number one band name right now is Donkey Congress (don't anybody dare steal it).

[Davey Boy 2.0]

holy sheepshit zero, did you drink an entire pot of coffee this morning?

[zero]

I know I get on ridiculous rolls sometimes. This is all I do now, the writing, so I tend to be pretty disciplined and up and at 'er pretty early because of what a luxury it is to just do whatever you want. It's a Warren Beatty thing, without the budget.

'If you always get up late, your never gonna be on time' as Emily Haines sings.