Is war becoming a bigger or smaller problem?

[bradm]

I was reading a discussion about atheism vs. theism on a usenet newsgroup, and one of the participants said something about "now that you atheists are in control, the world will be ravaged by wars."

This made me wonder: is it possible to measure just how much in the way of "warring" is going on at any moment? Can we tell, in some objective or numeric way, whether the world is getting safer or more dangerous?

For example, let's do some tallying over the past, say, 1000 years. For each year, count (or estimate) the number of conflicts (of any size, or bigger than some minimum size), the total number of fighting soldiers, the total number of military and civilian casualties (dead and wounded), and the world population. My gut feel is that, as a percentage of the world population, the more soldiers fighting and total casualties, the more "warry" it is. (Along with the year-by-year tallies, significant events and developments [e.g., introduction of gunpowder to the west, creation of the United Nations, etc.] could be included, to see if [or how] they affected things.)

Do we have any historians here? I wonder whether this'd be an interesting thesis topic.

Aloha,

Brad

[hamilton]

I'm pretty sure this has been done. I seem to remember reading something about it, anyway. Unfortunately, I have absolutely no idea where I read this. Maybe your masterful googling skills will turn up something.

What disturbs me, though, is this fucked-up notion that atheists are more likely to start wars. The belief that atheists have no morals is ignorant but widely believed.

[bradm]

What disturbs me, though, is this fucked-up notion that atheists are more likely to start wars. The belief that atheists have no morals is ignorant but widely believed.

Well, that's what kicked it off. I have no doubt that the next several years or decades will be filled with wars, but I defy anyone (theist or atheist) to find a period in recorded history that wasn't filled with wars (e.g., most of Europe, from 1700 to 1900).

Aloha,

Brad

[d_rawk]

What disturbs me, though, is this fuÇked-up notion that atheists are more likely to start wars. The belief that atheists have no morals is ignorant but widely believed.

100% agree. I also dislike it's opposite, that religion is the source of conflict. Neither theism nor atheism lead necessarily and naturally to violence, in general.

I have no doubt that the next several years or decades will be filled with wars, but I defy anyone (theist or atheist) to find a period in recorded history that wasn't filled with wars (e.g., most of Europe, from 1700 to 1900).

Gut feeling is that you are correct. I think maybe it is just the same old 'things used to be better' sentimentality and fantasies of times that never existed. I'm always amazed when I hear things like "the world has gotten so fucked up" or "everything has gone to shit". Really? Do you know what the world used to look like?

To the point though, I don't understand how atheism (and are the atheists in control, really? that itself seems a bizarre statement to make .. if anything we've got nutbars proclaiming proudly their 'personal relationship with [...]' in the highest positions) would be a potential danger vis a vis public decision making. What the fuck usenet group are you reading, anyways? I thought that was just used for binaries these days

[bradm]

What the fuck usenet group are you reading, anyways?

sci.physics

in the topic titled "Does God need to prove he exists?".

Aloha,

Brad

[Thorgnor]

As someone with a little perspective on conflict and alternative readings of history I can say that I feel war has become far less pervasive in a human geography sense (the amount of lived on territory that is actively involved in conflict has vastly decreased). However I feel that the disconnect between some societies (our own for example) warring activities and the business relationship that exists allows us to believe that we are not participating directly and makes for a sticky situation. It is much more difficult to determine the levels of motivation in conflicts these days and why they seem so endless. This also has to do with our own culture of optics... what we see is what we think is out there, and we see an awful lot of conflict elsewhere and very little at home.