What you didn't know about the election

[d_rawk]

Interesting little article from the Edmonton Sun

OTTAWA — Stephen Harper’s Conservative strategists held back his platform because they feared the prime minister would ad-lib himself out of several seats in the campaign’s final days as he did in 2004 and 2006.

Stephane Dion’s Liberal team was so frustrated with his reluctance to go negative during the election campaign that they ultimately ignored his objections and aired ads without his approval.

The behind-the-scenes story of how the Tories almost blew Tuesday’s election and how the Liberals tried to ward off utter disaster is full of miscalculations on the one side and chaotic improvisation on the other.

Senior campaign staffers from the parties spoke to The Canadian Press throughout the campaign about those decisions on condition they not be reported until after the vote.

Among their revelations:

— The Liberal team speedily scrambled to come up with Dion’s pivotal 30-day action plan on the economy in a matter of hours after Harper asked for more time to discuss the economy during the leaders’ debate.

— Dion’s wife, Janine Krieber, refused at the last minute to introduce her husband at a women’s event because she found the brief speech prepared for her by campaign HQ to be undignified.

— One of a series of gaffes that bedevilled the Tory campaign — Calgary incumbent Lee Richardson’s suggestion that immigrants are more likely to be involved in crime — actually boosted the party’s numbers in the suburbs and exurbs of Toronto.

— Dion stopped speaking to Liberal party pollster Michael Marzolini last winter after the pollster warned him it would be political suicide to propose a carbon tax.

— Dion found one of the first Liberal ads, targeting Harper’s management of the economy, to be too negative. He insisted that the ad be expanded to include an upbeat promotion of the Green Shift.

— Liberal strategists didn’t bother to get Dion’s approval for the next ad, which slammed Harper’s handling of the listeriosis crisis.

— Conservative operatives acknowledged they never thought the stubborn Liberal leader would agree to deep-six his baffling Green Shift and refocus his campaign on the staggering economy.

It was that miscalculation that contributed to the Conservatives’ squandering a majority that was in their grasp at the beginning of the campaign.

But Tory strategists weren’t as far off the mark as they think. Left to his own devices, Dion likely wouldn’t have shifted gears — or at least not so quickly.

He was forced into a mid-campaign correction by frustrated veterans at Liberal campaign headquarters who cajoled, pushed and finally resorted to end runs around their leader in a desperate bid to save a sinking campaign.

Dion initially resisted pressure from headquarters to shift his focus to the economy. But he agreed to announce a hastily cobbled together 30-day economic action plan during the debates in the belief that Harper — who had asked that the leaders be given more time to discuss the stock market meltdown — was planning to spring some new initiative.

Liberal operatives were astonished at their good fortune when Harper failed to offer any new action on the market carnage.

For all that the economy became the pivotal issue late in the campaign, Tory strategists concede Harper scuppered his chance of winning a majority over a relatively minor issue — $45 million in cuts late last summer to cultural programs.

The Conservatives had been well-placed to at least double their 10 seats in Quebec until the cuts were portrayed as a threat to Quebecers’ identity.

Harper compounded the problem by dismissing the artists as whiners at a “rich gala subsidized by taxpayers†whose complaints don’t resonate with “ordinary people.â€

Almost overnight, a moribund Bloc Quebecois campaign was given new life.

Tom Flanagan, a former chief of staff to Harper, said provoking a contretemps over culture was simply inexplicable given Harper’s high hopes for building his majority in Quebec.

If the government was determined to save such a piddling amount of money, he said Harper should have waited until after the election to cut the arts programs.

The cuts, combined with a get-tough on youth crime plank which also backfired in Quebec, were intended to solidify the Conservatives’ core supporters.

But a Tory strategist said the tactic never made sense since the Conservative base was never in any danger of abandoning the party.

Worse, he said, the transparently partisan tactic of narrowly appealing to specific voter groups unravelled the folksy sweater-clad image the party’s early ads had tried so hard to convey and reminded voters why they’re wary of the prime minister.

“Sometimes the strategy and people around him get to this old-school, carve, dice, slice, wedge (approach),†the strategist said.

“In Canada, you’re supposed to be the prime minister for all people ... People judge you by how you treat not those who support you but those who don’t support you.â€

If the culture cuts killed Harper’s chances of winning a majority, his handling of carnage on the stock market, triggering fears of a deep, protracted global recession, threatened to throw him out of office altogether.

When the economic storm clouds finally burst on the eve of the crucial televised leaders debates, Harper’s resolute insistence on sticking to his steady-as-she-goes message sent Conservative support into a tail spin that only began to recover in the final days of the campaign.

“Any time there’s really bad economic news, the government’s going to get blamed for it but this curious lethargy made it worse,†said Flanagan.

The original strategy of depicting Harper as a steady hand at the tiller in uncertain economic times was sound. But Flanagan said it lacked “the flexibility to deal with unforeseen events†like the stock market bloodbath.

Turns out that lack of flexibility was deliberate.

Insiders said Tory strategists were determined that this time Harper’s campaign wasn’t going to run out gas in the home stretch as it did in 2004 and 2006. Hence, the decision to withhold release of the platform until the final week.

Trouble was, that left Harper with nothing new to offer during the leaders’ debates.

He opened himself to accusations that he was unprepared to deal with the crisis and detached from ordinary Canadians who were watching the value of their homes, pensions and investments evaporate.

Dion’s 30-day plan amounted to little more than a promise to hold a series of urgent meetings but, in the absence of anything new from Harper, it worked.

“It’s ridiculous,†conceded a Liberal insider. “But it’s served its purpose. Dion can say, `I have a plan, where’s your plan?’ â€

So why didn’t Conservatives move up the platform launch or otherwise arm Harper with any sort of new economic initiative to take into the debates?

“They calculated that voters would trust the Conservatives more (than the Liberals) to manage the economy,†said the Tory strategist.

“What was miscalculated was how quickly the Liberals would pivot from the environment plank to the economic plank and we miscalculated the brand equity of the Liberals.â€

And in a time of economic uncertainty, another Tory insider said it appeared “it’s the Liberal brand that’s comforting to a lot of people.â€

Still, Tories believed Dion was uncomfortable talking about economic issues and, in any event, wouldn’t budge from his obsession with the Green Shift — a complex proposal to impose a carbon tax, offset by income and business tax cuts.

“That’s the miscalculation of the campaign, that no one would be able to move Stephane Dion off the carbon tax,†said the Tory strategist.

It was an understandable mistake. Dion had, after all, been impervious to all previous attempts to warn him of the perils of the Green Shift.

The cerebral Dion was passionate about his environmental plan and in the opening week of the campaign seemed to love nothing better than to discuss its intricate details.

Liberal insiders said campaign headquarters pressured Dion daily over the first three weeks to focus more on the economy. It was just one source of virtually constant tension between those on the plane and those on the ground throughout the first few weeks, which reached it nadir with Krieber’s refusal to introduce her husband at an event shortly before the debates.

A sense of common purpose finally started to set in by the end of the third week, with the debates approaching and polls showing Liberals in danger of being overtaken by the NDP. Strategists who’d been pushing an emphasis on the economy finally found a receptive audience.

Briefly, Liberals even dared hope they might actually win a minority — until Harper’s Tories staged an eleventh hour rebound.

That tantalizing glimpse of victory left many Liberals wondering: What if they’d focused on the economy from the outset, what if they’d never gotten bogged down in the Green Shift?

“If he’d had his five-point (economic) plan that he revealed in the debate, had he done a version of that Day 1 of the campaign, I think it might’ve been a whole different story,†lamented Steve MacKinnon, former national director of the Liberal party.

MacKinnon also wonders what might have happened had Dion never struck a non-compete agreement with Green party Leader Elizabeth May and fought for her inclusion in the debates. May outperformed Dion and her party ended up modestly increasing its votes, largely at the expense of the Liberals.

“I don’t know what we’re doing giving a free pass to another political party that disproportionately bleeds from us.â€

[Davey Boy 2.0]

great article, the ineptitude is astounding

[Ms.Huxtable]

No kidding. If all that is true it's really pathetic.

[Birdy]

War rooms are fun.

[SaggyBalls]

I bet it went like this in the Liberal boardroom:

"what the fuck are we gonna do"

"uh..."

"no - really - where do we start?"

"Why not just explain the Green Shift? It's simple enough. Canadians should get the gist of it."

and in the Green Party HQ

"Yippee! We get funding!"

"This is gonna be fun. We'll finally be able to prove how right we are"

"But what about those idiots that just don't get it?"

"They never will. Do you really care if we get a seat?"

"Naw...you're right. this IS gonna be fun. Maybe we can go on a train ride!"

The NDP head office...

"So whadda ya think?"

"Just make sure Layton doesn't shave that 'stache"

"Canadians need a Handsome leader...Nobody has anything that trumps that, eh?"

"Just keep him off his bike. Canadians get grossed out by pit stains...Especially after a Gilette Commercial"

Tories...?

"well, Stephen?"

"well your advice worked before..."

"what advice?"

"Fake it till ya make it."

"really? I said that?"

"sure did, Dubya. I can play it cool."

"You really got that shit eating grin down, Brother."

"Fo Shizzle"