Who do we vote for?

[The Constable]

Forget about the individual candidates ... they don't matter in the Canadian political system, this rule goes for leadership candidates as well. MPs are bound to vote along party lines so you need to vote for the party that most aptly represents your personal opinions. Understand where you sit on the major issues that are most important in your life, identify the PARTY that best represents those opinions and that's who you vote for, regardless of whether you like the actual candidate in your riding or not. Once you figure out where you stand on issues you'll probably end up voting for the same party in every election and avoid this never ednding decision making process.

That's something that's always bugged me about Elections Canada -- in a party based system they don't indicate party affiliations on the ballots when in fact this is really the only information that matters.

[Hux]

I physically cannot - not post - in these discussions...ahggghhhhh....here goes....sorry....

re: MoMack's comment:

"Second: This election is the perfect time for NDP supporters to vote NDP. The stronger the NDP contingent, the more influence they will have on what is almost certain to be a MINORITY government. The last time we had a successful minority government (not counting Joe in '79 here), the NDP pushed and got health care across our nation."

The fatal flaw in MoMack’s statement is “The STRONGER the NDP contingent”…..

it’s not that simple - more NDP seats does not necessarily mean they will have a stronger position in a minority government, because what your statement doesn't address is WHO forms that minority government?

If it's the Liberals, and the numbers add up, you're right, the NDP could be the balance of power but if it's the Conservatives.... NOT A CHANCE ...here's why:

ie. If it's a Conservative minority government (which going by the latest polls:

(Pollara: Con 36 % Lib 31 % Ndp 16 % Bq 12 % (today)

....is the likeliest outcome at this point) and the election results look like this:

(308 seats/ridings in the House of Commons)

Conservative: 128

Liberals: 110

NDP: 20

...and here's the key:

BLOQ QUEBECOIS: 50

If this scenario goes down, the NDP in fact will NOT be the balance of power as the combined Liberal/NDP vote would be LESS than the combined Conservative/Bloc seats.

Sooo....basically the Bloc and the Conservatives could combine to basically run the government. Peter McKay (deputy leader of the Conservatives) has already raised this as a possibility. Now of course the Bloc is a very left-leaning party - BUT - their allegiance is not to Canada and they wouldn't use their balance of power position in the House as the NDP would to create better legislation in their vision – they would use it to disrupt the federal system, and be thorns in Ottawa. Also the Bloc’s main focus of “more for Quebec” is eerily similar in theory to the Conservatives who want to let the provinces set standards for things like private delivery of health care etc… basically the Bloc doesn't give a fuck about our country, ie. if someone in PEI or BC is getting a fair shake.

Other real possibility - Conservative majority:

The Conservatives are a hell of a lot stronger, and WILL win a lot more seats this go around because they merged the two right wing parties - especially in Ontario, and according to polls - could squeak out a majority. Harper isn't even campaigning in the East, or Western Canada as it's his old Reform base - he has it in-the-bag -

***the election will be won or lost in close ONTARIO ridings***

If it's a Conservative majority, the Liberals will be a very close second, and the NDP won't even be close, they simply cannot win ridings in a large portion of the country (they know this themselves, and are focusing their resources on around 60 ridings where they feel they have a chance). If it's a Conservative majority, it won't make a difference if the NDP won 8 or 18 seats, we're into 4-5 years of Prime Minster Harper.

Dammit….I truly don’t mean to babble this long, I just can’t help it….!!

one more thing, MoMack, the last time the NDP played a role in minority gov’t before ’79 - was ’72-’74, and while a productive period - the health care system was WELL established by then, and besides, that was a Trudeau Liberal minority gov't, your theory is completely flawed when you plug it into a Conservative minority goverment - the situation we are in today.

[Hux]

....I should add that if it is a Liberal minority government, there is no question the NDP (if their combined votes with the Liberals is more than the combined Conservatives/Bloc seats) would play a key role in pushing the Liberals left (good IMO) in all areas.

BUT...the whole "punish the Liberals" sentiment/and our friend in Ontario Mr. McGuinty has basically allowed the Conservatives to sneak in, gain the momentum and become the favourites at this point, to form the government.

[scottieking]

Dream scenario as Hux says is a Liberal minority with NDP "support". Push the social agenda.

If the conservatives can't form a majority naturally the Governor General has to ask the Liberals if they can form the government. They do not have to have a single shread of support to simply say "Yes, we can" and put it to the house. In the past, like in 1978, Trudeau simply defered to the PC's but he could have tried to make a go of it. Martin will try because honestly it's his last chance.

Let's say it's a Conservative Minority or Majority. Honestly, they haven't even formed policy as a party yet. Wait until the fall when they bring their ad-hock party together and realize "hey, we agree on nothing" Conservative parties of the past have always been an effort to hold together conflicting levels of the right ideology and regional interests. Harper won't be able to handle the pressure and the country will never mandate ANYTHING by referendum. Constitutional change just scares everyone (see Charlottetown Accord)

Personally, I hope those opportunistic fucks don't gain power (Michael Wilson and Don Masenkowski are licking their lips)but if they do, rest assured they'll never be able to pull it together long enough to inflict any real damage.

Vote how ever you want, but make sure to vote.

[MoMack]

Hux:

I mostly agree... (I really think the NDP is the reason for health care.. but thats another day). The only thing I'm not as set on is the idea that the Bloc will let Harper pass what he wants, they are pushing a very social democratic platform, and yes they are out for Quebec, but they are not pushing the separatism buttons this time(to my understanding)... I think Scottie King has a good point in that the pary is made up of many factions, some less crazy then others (the Tories I mean). This combined with Bloc benig social dem. means that yes, some right wing policies will go through, but the severe ones shouldn't, and when it comes down to it every vote in the house should count, and in many cases, for left leaning people, an NDP vote is much safer then a business liberal vote. (as left in comparison to the conservatives as the Liberals may be, there are still surely some that could be considered borderline neo-cons, or at least very right business libs... although I'm sure you'll disagree hux

[thatpatguy]

man.. too bad I missed the bulk of that discussion.. I would have enjoyed that

just one more thing I guess.. I don't think this was brought up but if it was and I missed I'm sorry for repeating it.

just one comment on strategic voting and how it can go horribly wrong.

lets say you live in a riding and you think candidate A is going to win by a land slide, AND, that was the candidate you were going to vote for anyway. So you decide, ok, that's cool, I've always wanted to give some support to this other smaller party and I guess this is my chance or, maybe I'll send a vote to this party as a protest.. why not.. I mean candidate A is going to win anyway..

but what if enough people share this thought? then candidate A, who looked like a winner, loses because a pile of votes have now left them.

I dunno.. just a thought.. but that's why I don't vote strategically (I only did it once.. when Mike Harris was running for his second term in Ontario.. and I felt bad afterwards).

[Hux]

"The only thing I'm not as set on is the idea that the Bloc will let Harper pass what he wants, they are pushing a very social democratic platform, and yes they are out for Quebec, but they are not pushing the separatism buttons this time(to my understanding)..."

But there is common ground, on the more power to the provinces front, it the Bloc had their way, the federal gov't would just issue the cheques to the provinces, without a national gov't giving direction and enforcing national standards in things like health. It jives with the Conservatives who generally want less government. But you are right, the Bloc would not allow the more right wing policies to pass...but the other tactic they have is stuff like "accidently" not showing up in the House to vote, things like that....ie. make Canada even more right wing, so their separatist core voters want out of the country even more.

That's the scary part MoMack, the Bloc has secured Quebec - we Libs are quite simply - f*cked there, it's over, hence the Mulroney ads we're running, he's popular in Quebec, and the ads are proof we've thrown in the towel there.

The Bloc doesn't talk up seperatism, and would rather not, but suddenly when you have 50 separatist MP's in Ottawa, it's the behind the scenes stuff that bolsters separatism in the province, like using the influence they have as MP's to helping separatist friends, businesses, etc....we're talking mundane MP daily work stuff (help with EI, Immigration, Pension, appointments to boards, panels, etc..) but it's stuff like this on the ground that gives them more influence.

Liberals neo-cons? there's no question we're for keeping the books balanced, but look at the platform: a national daycare program, home care for seniors, health, nation building instead of Iraq style invasion forces - don't let your views of Paul blind you to reality, it's a pretty left wing platform. Find me something in there that is right wing?

.........great discussion guys.......

[meggo]

okay. airing out my ignorance for all to see...

what are the liberals planning on doing to help protect/clean up the environment? IMO this should be a priority, it affects health care, it affects the economy, etc etc and so far canada has had a pretty poor record; i.e. little to no legislation protecting endangered species, and so on. this is something i notice the ndp and obviously the green party bringing up more, and if i change my vote away from liberal this will be the reason why...

[AdamH]

This election is going to be a tough one for me. No need to rehash all the strategic vs. gut-feel ideas that others have mentioned. And even the leader vs. MP argument is starting to wear me out.

I think the NDP is a platform that is most representative of what I believe in. but if voting for them installs a leader (Harper) who goes completely against the things I stand for, then it's going to be liberal.

I really do like Jack's optimism and idealism, but he essentially lost my vote when he admitted during the debates that debt repayment was not an NDP priority. my vote is now based on a combination of sound economic principles and improvements, where possible, in the social programs and services which matter most to me.

So hearing him say that he would not focus on debt repayment, yet children were his highest priority? Doesn't make sense to me. His dreamer stance may have worked in municipal politics, but he hasn't leveled himself out for a federal platform it seems unlikely that...right now...he's ready to take the reigns.

[AdamH]

Meggo - There's going to be an all-party debate on the environment next week here in Ottawa. I'll submit a new thread about it.

[thatpatguy]

...but he hasn't leveled himself out for a federal platform it seems unlikely that...right now...he's ready to take the reigns.

I think the only real way for the NDP to get ready to take over the reigns is to act as the official opposition for a term or two. As much as the NDP is getting my vote I agree, they aren't ready.

and just for the sake of saying it.. my dream government.. NDP minority with the Greens as the official opposition... mmmm.. left

[Freeker]

It's not a question of what will the Liberals do (although it totally should be) it's a question of what will the Conservatives do to rape this country if we let them slip into power. The NDP and the Green will never have a chance to instutute their policy because THEY WILL NEVER WIN!! The Greens will be lucky to just get enough votes to be even considered a party. The NDP wil win their strategic ridings and hold up until next election and try again with a stronger power base, but don't expect anything from them this year, maybe a jump from 16% top 26% which would be incredible but little solice while Harper is turning this country into America Jr.

DO not throw your vote away, in this election the only choice that is in front of you is Liberal or Conservative, to hell with policy or track record, at least we know the the Libs will bend to public pressure and we will get some things accomplished while the Conservatives will railroad us into the ground.

When I think about this election it always reminds me of the ideallistic hipster college kids in the states that voted Nader because it was the right thing and the IN thing to do. Nothing from Nader, great man, personal hero, but a master of bad timing and a bit of a meglomaniac. ANd just how disillusioned and disgruntled these kids were after seeing their actions casue the total opposite reaction of a Reb. gov't. Do you really want to vote Green(NDP) because it's mirrors what you represent just to help install a regime that is the polar opposite of what you believe in...Think about that will feel

Ontario is the front lines people. Vote NDP if you're positive it doesn't matter (they're going to win that riding no prob) but I know of no other ridings where it's a lock besides Broadbents, so everyone else should be voting Liberal, pay no attention to the propaganda and policy pay more attention to the polls leading up to the 28th.

Just another thing in life that sucks!!!

[meggo]

yeah... i know that none of the parties i would really like to see win actually will, but... i still really don't think it's throwing my vote away. i may be too idealistic but i think that if enough people vote for what they believe in, it may get a message across. i'm going to go outside and sell flowers now ::

[SevenSeasJim]

On a side note here: Who wants Freeker to change his name back to FreeknutsByTheSpeaknuts?

i do.

[MarcO]

Don't be discouraged, Meggo - follow your heart, just be sure to vote. There is no such thing as a "wasted" vote. I don't believe there is.

Alo, remember that according to the new federal funding formula, each party receives something like $1.75 for each vote. Multiply that by the thousands of people also voting Green and you'll be helping make a contribution to something you believe in.

If, however, the spectre of diluted women's rights, the blurring of church of state, siphoning money that would go to social programs into the military, a united drug policy and foriegn policy with the US, a two-tier health system, a mean-spirited immigration policy, and a complete abandon of the Kyoto protocal bothers you more than what you think your Green vote will accomplish, maybe think twice. You can still send the Green party that $1.75 after you've helped keep the Conservatives out of power!

I do unserstand the compulsion to supporting the Greens. They have a lot of attractive arguments. Shame they'll never have the chance to implement them but they can be an influence on other parties, the stronger they get!

[MarcO]

and oh yeah - I kinda liked FreakfuckByTheSpeakfuck myself......