New Poll: Conservative support in Quebec Slip Slidin' Away

[Hux]

New Ekos poll out today:

National:

Conservatives - 36%

Liberals - 32%

NDP - 16%

BQ - 10%

Greens - 6%

And in Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 44%

Liberals - 21%

Conservatives 17%

I love watching the faces of the new Conservative MP's from Quebec in QP when this kinda news is about - so glum, they know their careers may be short lived. What a shame.

"With their support at 17 per cent, the Tories would be hard-pressed to get their 10 Quebec MPs re-elected, let alone win new seats. Their current standing is a full eight points below their score in the last election"

[afro poppa]

good.

[The Chameleon]

Well I kinda thought this would happen. If Harper loses support in Quebec his fragile minority is really fucked!

Let's hope.

[Hux]

More insight from Chantal Hebert:

"In fact, it could well be that some Harper strategists have already given up on Quebec. How else to explain the spate of policy announcements and pronouncements of the past few weeks? If the government had wanted to run its prospects down in Quebec, it could hardly have achieved its purpose more quickly than by insisting on its plan to do away with the long-gun registry on the heels of a deadly shootout at Dawson College in Montreal, the abandonment this week of any pretence that climate change is a federal priority, the elimination of a variety of initiatives such as the court challenges and the literacy programs that have long stricken chords in Quebec and the recent musings about a defence of religions act."

[SmoothedShredder]

So when's the next big vote to force an election? Are we going to have to wait until the new year? Lets hurry this thing up!

If this is true...

a) There's no way the Conservatives could even come close to a majority

It is likely the Liberals would win a Minority government, which would be fine with me to keep the new leader on his or her toes

c) We could really see where Quebec stands in relation to re-electing a Bloc government (and if it goes all red, perhaps even a Liberal Majority)

d) There is no way any Same Sex Legislation will passed anytime soon

e) There is no way any pro-life Legislation will be passed anytime soon

[color:purple]I'm so angry and scared!

But seriously, this government has almost been lame duck, even though every move has been under a mircoscope... I'm ready to vote again, atleast to get a sense of the judgement that the people have on what has happened so far, and the ramp up the tension on a minority government to 'make it or break it'.

How would that work? How long until the government is defeated in the House until election day? A month or two? Wasn't the Bloc saying it would bring down the house sometime into the new year, which would fit nicely with the Liberals and their newly appointed king, er, leader!

March elections? That'd be my guess. Feburary would be fun!

[Birdy]

ugh.. the one thing i hate about minority governments is when the whole 'let's bring 'em down' stuff starts... especially prematurely. i'm not ready to vote again quite yet. i'd rather float the CPC some more time to see what else they can try and pull off... it would definitely afford me the opportunity to learn more about what direction the party's platform is heading in. I think i'd be better equipped to vote knowing these things. I need a few more microscopic moves to make a better judgement.

[Hux]

General consensus in the Conservatives will present a Budget in the spring that the opposition parties will not be able to support, in essence engineering their own defeat.

However, the more their numbers go south the more the dynamic changes and their strategy could change - maybe they'll be working to avoid defeat then - but the Bloc is pretty locked into voting against the next Budget unless it delivers 12 billion for the "fiscal imbalance", so they're kinda locked in at this point.

So, I guess I would bet on an April election, but I have been very wrong on election timing before, so I won't pretend to have any idea.

[The Chameleon]

Election? The sooner the better, I'm ready to vote again.

[djmelbatoast]

ugh.. the one thing i hate about minority governments is when the whole 'let's bring 'em down' stuff starts... especially prematurely. i'm not ready to vote again quite yet. i'd rather float the CPC some more time to see what else they can try and pull off... it would definitely afford me the opportunity to learn more about what direction the party's platform is heading in. I think i'd be better equipped to vote knowing these things. I need a few more microscopic moves to make a better judgement.

This is not surprising as you have defended most of Harper's non-social conservative moves.

I say bring them down quickly, before they can once again convince people that they aren't who they really are.

[Dr_Evil_Mouse]

I'd never thought the day would arrive, e.g., when REAL Women would be deciding on issues essential to the rights of Canadian women. That's really, really disturbing.

[Birdy]

I say bring them down quickly, before they can once again convince people that they aren't who they really are.

once again? i'm confused. when's the last time a Conservative government was formed? oh yes! the early NINETIES! yes... i see. Wasn't it the most recent LIBERAL government charged with scandal? yes. but yah, let's vote again, god knows we should be more afraid of the unknown than the KNOWN. god knows this country is better served by despotism than by allowing any other sort of representation or voice be heard.

That's kind of what I find disturbing. It seems that judgement is levied pretty swiftly around this place. I don't mean AT ALL to sound condescending as I think a lot of you have good heads on your shoulders, but I often wonder why constructive criticism comes to an abrupt halt when it asks you to perhaps criticize what you believe in or don't believe in. Why it's so difficult to see the good in some things without jumping the gun to see the bad? Why it's so easy to let a few paint the picture for the whole?

I mean, I can sit and read articles all day long about the coming of the end, pretty damn convincing ones at that, but you don't see me running for the hills. Has it really come to the point where faith can't be invested? If so, kudos to the Liberal camp at a job fucking well done.

[Hux]

Wasn't it the most recent LIBERAL government charged with scandal? yes.

Wrong. Do your homework. It was the Chretien Gov't. Or are we all crooks? I'd say the Conservative camp did a good job selling that snake oil. So kudos to them for getting you.

What was that about:

Why it's so difficult to see the good in some things without jumping the gun to see the bad? Why it's so easy to let a few paint the picture for the whole?

It goes both ways and you are as guilty as those you criticize.

[Birdy]

haha.. easy there political maestro.

I call them the most liberal recent government as we didn't vote Paul Martin in, he took over.

[Booche]

I think I have seen enough from the current Gov't to know which direction they prefer to go.

[Birdy]

It goes both ways and you are as guilty as those you criticize.

for what? for wanting to give someone else a shot to see what they can pull off? I voted for change this time around Hux... just to see what could happen. My posts in this forum aren't all about bad-mouthing the Liberal Party or any other party at all, rather to show that the CPC might not be all that bad... so i don't really see the correlation. Hell, I almost am a Liberal if you take away the finances.

[Hux]

we didn't vote Paul Martin in, he took over.

....and won the 2004 election. I'm sure you didn't vote for "Team Martin", but enough of your neighbours did:

Chatham-Kent-Essex

2004 Election Results

(Lib) Jerry Pickard - 17435

(CPC) Dave Van Kesteren -17028

(NDP) Kathleen Kevany - 7538

And I agree with Booche, I'd say the CPC have tipped their hand...

Birdy I challenge you to find a political commentator in Canada would would say the Conservatives haven't staked out a pretty clear approach and vision of where they're going.

[Birdy]

I think I have seen enough from the current Gov't to know which direction they prefer to go.

i'm borderline. i may be naive, but i think SOME of this social conservative stuff could possibly be an attempt to keep their already socially conservative fanbase. even though i'm starting to doubt it as they continue to push the issues, instead of saying "look we tried". but i like the emphasis they put on debt reduction that they give... as it's a pretty top notch concern of mine. that and they haven't even been governing for a year. i think we could at least extend them a year before the 'bringing down the house' talk begins.

[Booche]

Personally, I love the idea of debt reduction and it should be higher on most everyone's agenda (but I shouldnt be speaking for everyone) but having a mixture of socially conscious programs while getting rid of debt is equally as important.

Realistically, the economy should be on everyones mind if you are following what is happening in the States and our rising dollar.

[Hux]

Just to clarify for you Debt-heads, the previous 2 Liberal Govt's paid down more Debt than any Gov't in Canadian history.

[Birdy]

yup.

i'm just to the point now where i think debt reduction is of SOO MUCH importance that if we don't do anything now and FAST, that in the not so distant future there won't be any possible way to even consider socially-conscious programs. kind of a short term pain for long term gain strategy.

Realistically, the economy should be on everyones mind if you are following what is happening in the States and our rising dollar.

let alone the world and oil reserves and arms races and the thinking it's better borrow $$ to fund nuclear research than to pay down debt and plan for the future. makes for an extremely volatile world economy where one string pulled the wrong way could bring us all tumbling down. scary. i am all for socially-conscious programs, but i do think the Liberal agenda has a lot that it can scrap for the betterment of our economy.

Birdy I challenge you to find a political commentator in Canada would would say the Conservatives haven't staked out a pretty clear approach and vision of where they're going.

Hux i agree it's probably hard to pull off.. so i'll opt out of the challenge. But to me, it really doesn't matter what political commentators have to say, as I have a mind of my own to make up.

[ollie]

...they haven't even been governing for a year. i think we could at least extend them a year before the 'bringing down the house' talk begins.

If only the CPC had afforded Paul Martin's Liberals the same luxury. Don't you remember Stephen Harper in opposition?

[The Chameleon]

...they haven't even been governing for a year. i think we could at least extend them a year before the 'bringing down the house' talk begins.

If only the CPC had afforded Paul Martin's Liberals the same luxury. Don't you remember Stephen Harper in opposition?

[Birdy]

lol

...they haven't even been governing for a year. i think we could at least extend them a year before the 'bringing down the house' talk begins.

If only the CPC had afforded Paul Martin's Liberals the same luxury. Don't you remember Stephen Harper in opposition?

hmm.. 2004 - 2006

vs.

2006 - still' date=' 2006 [/b']

[ollie]

lol

...they haven't even been governing for a year. i think we could at least extend them a year before the 'bringing down the house' talk begins.

If only the CPC had afforded Paul Martin's Liberals the same luxury. Don't you remember Stephen Harper in opposition?

hmm.. 2004 - 2006

vs.

2006 - still' date=' 2006 [/b']

Please explain. Although I'd rather you just answer the question.

[Birdy]

okay ollie, yes i remember stephen harper in opposition.

2004 Paul Martin gets his minority government which doesn't come down until January of 2006, when Stephen Harper forms his minority government with the CPC, two years later. I mentioned that I hoped Harper be given at least a year before they topple his government and you said if only the CPC afforded the liberals that same luxury. By offering up those dates, i'm saying the CPC gave them more than that luxury. And I'd go onto say that they had legitimate reason to attempt to topple the Liberals too! SCANDAL!