X

[Joan]

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Edited September 13, 2012 by Guest

[timouse]

i'm hoping for Bob Rae.

i worry that it will be Iggy.

i hope that it ends quickly and painlessly so that they can get on to the business of defeating Steve.

[d_rawk]

I'm with timouse on all three points above. (I'll be content enough with Dion instead of Iggy, too)

Bob Rae, 3 ballots.

Hey SugarMegs, shouldn't you give us your guess too?

[timouse]

(But who knows!) Almost like playing Russian Roulette!

canadian roulette?

[Dr_Evil_Mouse]

I'd have hoped for Kennedy. I'm still wary of Iggy.

[The Chameleon]

Iggy is too shaky to get my A-OK. Bob Rae also sacrss me due to his speding debacle in Ontario in years past.

Hmmmmmm? :crazy:

[ollie]

Ignatieff will win after 5 ballots!! Complete guess on the ballots part though.

I really want Stephan Dion to win. I really, really do. Failing that, I'm in the "anyone but Bob Rae" camp.

[Dr_Evil_Mouse]

Oh I see so you guess that _____ will win after ___ ballots?

Oh right - sorry . I think I'm just in denial; I'm guessing Ignatieff will probably get it after three.

[Hux]

The only way I can see this being won in less than 4 ballots is if the bottom 4 candidates drop off before the 2nd ballot (which is unlikely as the 1st ballot is already done, and if they are going to MTL they likely want to see where the delegates fall when they vote freely on the 2nd ballot)

ie. it will presumably still take at least 2 ballots to finish when the top 4 are alone on the ballot, ie.

Kennedy

Rae

Dion

Iggy

then....

(Dion out)

Rae

Kennedy

Iggy

....then someone could win on the next one....but it could take even longer for the also-rans to drop off....

I just can't fathom a scenario in which it's done on the 3rd ballot.

Oh yeah, prediction?

Dryden on the 6th ballot

[scottieking]

If I had to take a shot at this now (and truly this is crapshoot) here is my fictious account of the coming weekend:

Igniteff gives the best "closing" speech, causing early whispers of "Iggy, Iggy"

Early ballots will remove the Brisons and Drydens leaving the big four to get down and dirty.

3rd will see Iggy and Rae deadlocked, with stronger than expected support for Kennedy and a ton of former Chreteinites propping up Dion.

4th will see a similar scenerio, little to no moment.

5th will see Kennedy drop out and throw all of his support behind (wait for it) Dion, turning this into a real shitkicker, Rae takes a slim lead

6th see 5th

7th will see all pretenders vanquished and in the slimmest of margins, Bob Rae emerges as leader of the federal Liberals , all but clearing the way for a Harper Minority in 2008 and the Trudeau in 2009 campaign.

Edited November 27, 2006 by Guest

[AD]

I'm hoping Kennedy takes it.

On the hmmmmmm 4th ballot.

(Someone want to explain how the voting works, or direct me to a website that can tell me in simple terms?)

AD

[d_rawk]

I humbly rescind my 3rd ballot prediction in light of all the good points made by people who have actually thought this through

[scottieking]

After each vote the candidate with the lowest amount of support will automatically lose and drop off the ballot. With each consecutive vote the candidate with the lowest amount of support drops off the ballot until someone wins.

This I did not know or forgot. My predictions remain the same. Just ignore ballot 4 and 6 and call it for Rae in the fifth!

Edited November 28, 2006 by Guest

[AD]

Thanks SugarMegs... How does someone win? Is it 50% + 1, etc....?

[phishtaper]

dion in 4

what do I win?

[Hux]

44 per cent of delegates polled say they are undecided on a second choice

This is crazy and means this thing will be decided on the convention floor in Mtl. Speeches on Friday night now count for a lot.

[Dr_Evil_Mouse]

I humbly rescind my 3rd ballot prediction in light of all the good points made by people who have actually thought this through

Ditto....

[d_rawk]

Sounds like the Dion/Kennedy deal is in the bag. Enough to push one of them past Rae for second place?

[SmoothedShredder]

Watching the Speeches, saw from Kennedy on:

Kennedy - Great guy, a great asset to the party... I hope he does well

Rae - Bombed in my opinion... his speech was so confusing, it seemed like he was saying everyone was better for the job than him, but give it to him anyways... if he gets elected, it's the best bet for the Conservatives in the next election, and the wrong wrong direction for the Liberals. What Rabbi was he talking about? His movie intro was weak. I'm convinced he was dropped/pulled into the race to cause a sort of smoke screen to help ensure Iggy gets the nod...

Ignatieffs - Clearly the slickest of the candidates. If anyone is going to maximize the Liberals short term gains in politics it'll be Iggy... I think he'll prove a worthy adversary for Mr. Harper, really uping the quality of debate in the house from that of the headless chicken who's currently in power. His speech was a little dry, but seemed great next to Rae's... his movie intro was fantastic! Atleast we'll have a Liberal leader who's internet savvy! Love the Roman drums to start it off, and having the crowd finish sentences for him. Loudest cheer of the night (IMO) was when Iggy said he was going to get seats in Alberta! Too funny

And the way he criticizes Harper is effective. If this guy can do what Harper does well, and leave out the stuff he's not so good at, then he'll be a realistic candidate in the next election... that is if he can prove to rally the party behind them... sooooooooo

Election pool.

I call March 2007... though I'm probably an idiot cause maybe they never have elections in March...

Have fun tomorrow! Looks like the JLC is having a blast!

Oh yeah... Creatien always knows when the Camera

s are on!

[scottieking]

Dion - This poor guy had his time monopolized by Glen Pearson, who spent most of his time selling the Green party and London voters (yay us!) His message was clear and important, but failed to deliver the knockout punch.

Kennedy - I want to like this guy. I do. He'll make a great Justice Minister someday.

Rae - Reminded me of Phil Donahue. But I felt like he was all over the place and lacked that propagating feeling a good convention speech should have.

Ignatieff - Say what you will about how creepy this guy looks when he smiles, but THAT was the Liberal stump speech we've come to know and love. Nice premediating crowd to propel the message over the top.

Winner

Volpe has already jumped ship to Rae.

Apparently there are Ignatieff/Brison and Ignatieff/Hall Findlay bumper sticker made already.

After hearing Rae speak, I'm really hoping he doesn't get it. It looks like he is practicing to be the leader of the opposition, but nothing more.

[ollie]

Didn't catch all of the speeches but caught parts of Kennedy, Rae and Ignatieff.

Kennedy was solid and it will be good to have someone of his poise in federal politics.

Rae was awful. He'll never shake that he was the premier of Ontario as an NDP. It will be a failure of colossal proportions if he wins.

I agree that Iggy is probably the best bet to go up against Harper at this point and I too would relish the level of debate. I also agree that if he sticks to his strengths he should do fine.

What time does voting get underway today?

[d_rawk]

Voting is well underway ... third ballot results should be in relatively soon (an hour?). Down to Ignatieff, Rae and Dion. Kennedy crossed over to Dion as expected. Iggy seems pretty much stalled at thirty-someodd percent.

[ollie]

Voting is well underway ... third ballot results should be in relatively soon (an hour?). Down to Ignatieff, Rae and Dion. Kennedy crossed over to Dion as expected. Iggy seems pretty much stalled at thirty-someodd percent.

Thanks! Any estimate on when they plan to announce the results of the 3rd?

[d_rawk]

Any time now. Looks like Iggy/Rae have struck a deal. This may be the death knell for Dion.

[scottieking]

here we go!

I think that Rae could go here. But who will he support? Why can't I shake the feeling that he will do the wrong thing. Oh yeah, I lived through the nineties!