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Go Habs Go - Fan Forum 11/12


Guest Low Roller

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Guest Low Roller

Things learned through the webz

Mike Blunden has gotten himself an apartment in Old Montreal meaning that he is staying with the team for the rest of the season.

Engqvist's agent has said that he was told that his client would remain in Montreal for the rest of the season.

Markov skated for the first time since his most recent surgery in December. Cunneyworth says that Markov is still a long way away.

Moen projected to be out of the line-up for a while.

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Things learned through the webz

Mike Blunden has gotten himself an apartment in Old Montreal meaning that he is staying with the team for the rest of the season.

Engqvist's agent has said that he was told that his client would remain in Montreal for the rest of the season.

Markov skated for the first time since his most recent surgery in December. Cunneyworth says that Markov is still a long way away.

Moen projected to be out of the line-up for a while.

Engqvist may want to explore a new agent... back to Hamilton he goes :)

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Every Habs fan should get drunkasfuck today. Its a celebration bitches!

Michael Farber, Sports Illustrated: My thumb is up - yes, up - to Scott Gomez's unhappy anniversary. Today marks one year since his last NHL goal. That's 58 regular season and playoff games, if you're counting. And believe me, Canadiens fans are counting. They cheered each time he touched the puck Saturday in the 3-0 loss to Washington. You figure a center that plays 15 minutes a game, and who, coincidentally, carries a cap hit of $7.3 million, might be able to put one past a goalie. Maybe the puck could just bounce in off him. Of course that would mean he'd have to be near the net… so scratch that. Why a thumb's up? Well, Gomez is immersed in the mother of all slumps - an epic fail to borrow a modern phrase. But as long as Gomez continues to trail Carolina goalie Cam Ward in the goal-scoring race, Montrealers have something to take their mind off the stunning ineptitude of the entire team, currently last in the Eastern Conference.

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Guest Low Roller

Funny relevant stat for the day: It's been two Super Bowls since Scott Gomez scored and Andrei

Markov played.

Not so funny: Nail Yakupov, the top ranked prospect, is only a short 5'10". He is destined for the Habs.

:surprise:

Edited by Low Roller
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Guest Low Roller

Time stood still while that puck slowly crossed the blueline... 1-0!

DD_Logo.jpg

Sad fact: Aaron Palushaj played more minutes in the first period than Scott Gomez.

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Guest Low Roller

So it will be interesting to see what Carolina can get for Spacek. I want to know whether I should be more furious about the Kaberle trade or just maintain my current level of fury.

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Guest Low Roller

I crunched some numbers on Kaberle because yo mama asked me in bed last night:

Number of games Kaberle has played with Habs: 24

Number of points in these 24 games: 14

Number of games with at least one point: 11 (46%)

Correlation between Kaberle getting at least a point and the Habs getting at least a point for the game: 58%

In other words there is a 58% chance that if Kaberle has a point in a game, the Habs will get at least one point for the game in the standings.

If Kaberle is scoring in 46% of his games giving the Habs 58% chance of earning at least one point in those games, the Habs will only earn points for 52% of their remaining 26 games, which is not enough to qualify for the playoffs.

Of course it doesn't take a statistician to tell you that the Habs won't make the playoffs, but again, yo mama asked for it and I gave it to her.

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Guest Low Roller

I wish to add some further stats to fuel some necessary conclusions at the end of the season. Hindsight is 20/20, but using points accrual rates and extrapolation, the following regular season points totals were calculated:

1- Overall this season, all things being equal (discounting coaching change and the Kaberle Effect) and using a trend line in Excel over the course of the season up to this point we can expect the Habs to finish with 78 points.

2- Using the winning percentage for the first 9 games where Perry Pearn was still ass coach the team would have earned an abysmal 47 points this year. This number carries a high percentage of error because of the small population size.

3- As the Kaberle trade and the Martin firing happened within two games of each other, these two events can be treated as one as the difference between these two points is essentially statistically insignificant. If we take the measurement at the time of Martin's firing the team would have earned 87 points, still shy of the mythical 92 needed to make the playoffs.

Conclusion: Firing Pearn proved to be the correct choice within statistical error. His removal increased the points accumulation of the team quite significantly. However firing Martin and trading for Kaberle proved to be the absolute opposite as the team's point accumulation rate actually receded at this point.

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