Go Habs Go - Fan Forum 09/10

[Guest Low Roller]

Gorgeous goal by Pouliot tonight.

[Guest Low Roller]

The annual tragic holiday Florida roadtrip begins tonight!

Price in nets tonight, Hamrlik back, MAB plays fourth line, Laraque and MaxPac sit the game out.

They will be playing against pissed Martin St.Louis and Vinny Lecav who were ignored by the Olympic team so the game could be interesting.

[Booche]

A tragedy narrowly averted.

Lets hope Gainey somehow walks away from the following unscathed, although I have been saying amongst my friends for the past few weeks to prepare for Plek's inevitable departure (unless serious dollars are first traded away, most likely Hammers). Then again, the money has to be right. I wouldnt like to see Pleks signed to a high-end, long-term contract but a smart betting man certainly has to see Cammalleri wants him resigned.

Friday, January 1, 2010

The "policy" put to the test

Yes, this is New Year's Day, but most importantly in the eyes of many Canadiens fans this is the first day GM Bob Gainey is allowed to negotiate a new contract with Tomas Plekanec, should he feel so inclined.

When Plekanec signed his one-year contract for $2.75 million back on July 21, I titled my story "Plekanec to play for his payday" because the one year on his deal got him to unrestricted free agency. Some were baffled as to how a 39-point season could translate into such a generous salary, though I thought at the time that Gainey only slightly overpaid to keep Plekanec away from arbitration.

In retrospect it's a good thing he did, because there's no way Plekanec would be the least bit inclined to give the Habs a hometown discount if that arbitration hearing had gone ahead as planned nine days after his signing. And I think everyone has to come to the realization that if Plekanec is going to be re-signed, it will have to come at a pretty significant discount to what he could fetch on the open market.

Plekanec said in Florida this week that he likes it in Montreal, that he considers it a second home and that he would love to stay here. His agent Rick Curran told ESPN.com's Pierre LeBrun on Boxing Day that he had no idea if Gainey would be picking up a phone to trigger negotiations this week, but he did note that Gainey has always been a big supporter of his client's (I'm assuming he means other than that time he decided to make Plekanec a healthy scratch in Game 2 of last year's playoff sweep against the Bruins. But I digress).

However, one thing that jumped out to me in Curran's comments was his use of the word "policy" to describe Gainey's willingness to talk contract during the season. Gainey himself was directly asked about this about a month ago when discussing the Guillaume Latendresse trade (which is starting to look pretty darned good with the way Benoit Pouliot is playing. Could you ever imagine seeing #84 on the PK? But again, I digress).

Gainey refuted the suggestion that he had a hard and fast rule against negotiating contracts mid-season, saying he only decided to handle things that way last season when half his team was looking for new contracts. That made sense then to avoid conflicts inside the room, but it wouldn't make that much sense now seeing as Plekanec is the only significant unrestricted free agent on the team (no offence to Glen Metropolit). He noted that he did talk contract with a previous free agent during the season, surely alluding to Mark Streit, and he did not deny that he might do the same with Plekanec. The only thing he made absolutely clear was that he would not be negotiating through the media, which is how some other GMs choose to operate (hello Don Waddell, that one was pointed at you).

As Plekanec continues showing no signs of relenting, pulling no-look OT winners out from under his hat, you have to start wondering whether or not he would even want to sign a contract before July 1. I don't know Curran at all, never spoken to him in my life. But I have to assume the guy is no dummy, and he can see a perfect storm brewing for he and his client this summer.

To give you an idea of what free agency may hold for Plekanec, consider this: he is the leading scorer among impending unrestricted free agents this summer. Yes, Ilya Kovalchuk would definitely command more money and years, but among the forwards hitting the market, I'm not sure anyone else would be more sought after than Plekanec. Patrick Marleau could be, if he keeps this up through the playoffs and has a strong Olympics, but otherwise you have Olli Jokinen, Alexander Frolov, Alex Tanguay, Colby Armstrong and the Maple Leafs trio of Lee Stempniak, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Matt Stajan as the rest of the impact forwards available who are under 35 years of age. And I realize I am stretching the definition of the word "impact" in a big way.

Among that group, would Plekanec not be in line for a huge payday on July 1, especially when you consider his dual role as an elite playmaker and penalty-killer? Plekanec has to know this, and in case he doesn't, he needn't look far for an example of what happens to a player who hits the market at the right time.

Sitting way on the opposite end of the Habs locker room from Plekanec's stall is one Scott Gomez, currently in year three of a seven-year, $51.5 million deal signed by the New York Rangers in the summer of 2007. One look at that fabled 2007 free agent class will give you an idea why Gomez was able to land such a ridiculous deal in the first place.

Joining Gomez on the free agent front that summer were Buffalo co-captains Daniel Briere and Chris Drury, and it was instantly determined that these were the top three centres available. Combined, they managed to pull in nearly $139 million on Canada Day (eight years, $52 million for Briere, and five years, $35.25 million for Drury).

I'm no economist, far from it, but I believe this is the nature of supply and demand in a free market economy. When there is little supply of high end talent, and said talent is willing to go to the highest bidder, prices will naturally increase. Those left grasping at the straws left behind at the centre position in 2007 included the Los Angeles Kings who gave Michal Handzus a four-year deal worth $16 million, and the Washington Capitals who gave Michael Nylander a four-year, $19.5 million contract.

Considering all five of the contracts listed here are seen as crippling errors today, you might be thinking that GMs have learned from their mistakes and will not repeat the same ones in 2010, when the free agent pickings will be far slimmer than they were three years earlier. If you believe that to be true, then you are truly delusional.

So, where does that leave us with Plekanec's value, or even in determining a starting point for discussions should either side choose to engage in them? Nowhere, because there are very few players Plekanec can be compared to. He sits fourth in the NHL in shorthanded time on ice, and among the leaders there are a few people who have a comparable skill set in the offensive end. Jordan Staal, eighth in SH ice time, is making $4 million for the next four years, but he was a restricted free agent when he signed that contract. There's Drury, whose ninth in the league, and there's Marleau who sits 22nd. Marleau is the bargain of the two at $6.3 million in the final year of his contract.

In terms of age and abilities, I feel the best comparison may be Patrick Sharp of the Chicago Blackhawks. He, like Plekanec, was 27 when he signed a four-year, $15.6 million contract in 2008 coming off a career-best 36-goal, 62-point season. Ottawa's Mike Fisher was 28 that same year when he signed a five-year, $21 million deal. Both those players have a nice mix of offensive upside and defensive awareness that could serve as ways to keep Plekanec's contract down a bit, because if he were to sign for $4.5 million a year it would have to be considered a huge bargain.

When you delve a little deeper into Plekanec's 46 points through 43 games, it becomes even clearer how valuable a player he is becoming. He is one of only nine centres in the NHL to be averaging a point a game or better, and of those only one, Marleau, is a free agent this summer. His 18 points on the power play ranks tied for fifth in the NHL, but his 28 even strength points place him 11th in the league, showing he is not a one-trick pony like a certain #27 we all used to know and love. He has more points on the road (26) than he does at home (20), and only Joe Thornton (30) and Alex Ovechkin (27) have more points on enemy ice than Plekanec.

Whether or not Plekanec can maintain this throughout the season remains to be seen, but he's shown nothing to this point that says he won't. His longest pointless streak so far this season has been three games, and he's only done that once. Three other times Plekanec went as many as two games without a point. That kind of consistency generally doesn't come from a flash in the pan type of player.

So, with all this working in his favour, can anyone find any reason whatsoever why Curran would advise his client to sign a contract offer from Gainey before the end of the season? Well, there are a few reasons out there. First of all, if Plekanec genuinely loves the city and the organization, there is something to be said for that. It's possible he would never succeed anywhere else, like legions of free agent departures before him, starting with the guy sitting in that stall at the opposite end of his own locker room. So maybe Plekanec would be willing to sacrifice a few million dollars for the security of continuity, but how many millions could he stomach leaving on the table?

The biggest factor for me would be to get his name on a long-term deal before the playoffs, or even the stretch drive when the games become more competitive and physically intense. Plekanec had nine points in 12 playoff games two years ago, which is when he gave his now infamous "I'm playing like a little girl out there" quote. Not a bad performance when looking at the numbers, but he had four of those points in the final three games, showing it took some time for him to adjust to the intensity level of the post-season. Last year, he was shutout in his three games, but that was just a fitting end to a nightmare season for both he and his teammates.

A reputation as a playoff underachiever is sometimes handed out a bit unfairly, but once it is attached to you, it is a hard one to shake. I don't think Plekanec has that reputation right now, but if his performance were to dip in the postseason this year it may become a question GMs will start asking themselves.

Finally, one more reason why he might want to grab the money early from Montreal is the cap situation around the league. Over half the teams in the league, 16 to be exact, have already committed in excess of $40 million to next season's payroll. They are the Bruins ($44.6 million for 12 players), Sabres ($44 million, 14 players), Flames ($44.9 million, 15 players), Hurricanes ($42 million, 14 players), Blackhawks ($60.7 million, 15 players), Blue Jackets ($47.6 million, 18 players), Red Wings ($40.7 million, 13 players), Oilers ($44.2 million, 13 players), Panthers ($45.3 million, 15 players), Kings ($46.1 million, 18 players), Canadiens ($44.9 million, 13 players), Devils ($44 million, 15 players), Rangers ($48.6 million, 15 players), Senators ($48.9 million, 15 players), Flyers ($47.1 million, 14 players) and Penguins ($41 million, 13 players).

There are other teams out there, like the Thrashers, Coyotes and Predators, to name a few, who have no intention of ever getting near the cap and work under an internal budget. Some of the team listed above are in good shape because they have a lot of their key players signed, and therefore could afford to spend some money on free agents this summer. But others will want to keep some wiggle room to deal with some of their own future free agents, such as the Kings who will be looking at Drew Doughty entering the final year of his entry level deal.

So in this financial landscape, Curran and Plekanec may want to hedge their bets and take the sure thing from Montreal, even if it is as much as $2 million a year less than what could be out there come July 1. The question is, of course, whether or not Gainey will reach out to his star player to get him signed, and whether or not Gainey believes that star player to be Plekanec or Carey Price.

The other question is whether or not Gainey feels he can sign both Plekanec and Price, which is why I've been saying for some time now that perhaps it is time to start exploring the trade market to see what Plekanec is worth. Others, like Ken Campbell of The Hockey News, may feel it would be a good time to trade Price and sign Plekanec, which is fair. I just don't see Gainey abandoning his "thoroughbred" like that, and I still believe Price's ceiling is way higher than either Plekanec or Jaroslav Halak.

But whether Plekanec is traded or not, it is becoming increasingly clear that he is going to hit the jackpot at some point this year. I'm just wondering if he is another Gomez in the making, hitting the unrestricted free agent market at just the right time.

[Booche]

Wondering which 'system' Martin has put in place?

We'll start with the opening faceoff. Most often, the Canadiens will lose this draw and the puck will go back to the Penguins/Panthers/Bruins/Flyers/Ducks/Blues/etc., henceforth known as the Other Team's, defencemen. Conversely, on the off chance the Habs win the draw, they will tip it ahead into the Other Team's zone where it will be immediately corralled by the Other Team's defencemen.

Once the Other Team's defencemen have control of the puck, they tend to skate toward the Canadiens' zone and pass it ahead to a forward in motion. At this point, the Canadiens' five players will drop back over their own blueline while the Other Team's puck carrier will enter the zone without challenge. The System does not recognize the blue line, and sees no need to defend it. The Other Team's forwards will begin to pass the puck around the boards, while the Canadiens attempt to take it from them, usually unsuccessfully.

While in the Canadiens' end, the Other Team will take the puck off the boards after what seems like two minutes of effortless cycle control and shoot at Price/Halak, who will usually make the save. The Canadiens will pile in around the crease, and look frantically around for the puck. If the goalie doesn't freeze it, the Other Team will most often get another whack at it. At this point, the goalie will have difficulty seeing through the forest of legs and sticks in his crease, yet will many times, somehow, make the second save anyway. If he doesn't, the puck will likely deflect off someone in front, quite often "someone" being a Canadiens defenceman who's looking for the puck instead of clearing men out of the crease, for the Other Team's first goal.

If, however, a Canadiens defenceman *does* manage to get control of the puck, he will pass it to his defence partner. He, in turn, will pass it from deep in his own zone to a winger who will likely be standing still at the blue line. The winger will then have to fight through a forecheck to move the puck anywhere. Usually, he will lose that battle and the Other Team will return the play to the Canadiens' zone. Otherwise, the winger will desperately chip the puck off the boards into the middle of the ice, in the often-vain hope there will be a teammate there to receive it. If the centre is there, and manages to successfully catch the pass, he will most likely dump it into the offensive zone corner, where the Other Team's defencemen will grab it, avoid the single forechecker the Canadiens have sent after it and quickly return the play to the Canadiens' end where the Habs, in frustration, will hook or trip or crosscheck someone and wind up in the box. Fortunately for the Canadiens, they will shut down the Other Team's PP and survive the penalty. Most of the time.

Sometimes, just to mix it up a bit, the centre, usually Scott Gomez, will carry the puck through the neutral zone himself and then peel off to the boards once he gains the zone. His wingers, when they catch up, will set up the cycle along the boards and once in a while they'll get a shot on net. However, as there will be no Canadiens player in the Other Team's crease, the goalie will get a good look at it and usually steer it away with little problem. The Other Team's defencemen will then clear the rebound out to a winger in motion and send it back down the other way.

If Tomas Plekanec is the centre who successfully enters the Other Team's zone, he will try to skate as close as he can to the net, then look for a pass. Sometimes Cammalleri or Kostitsyn will realize what he's doing and put their sticks down for the redirect. If Max Pacioretty is playing on that line, the Other Team will gang up on Plekanec and disable the trio's effectiveness.

Occasionally, the Canadiens will actually draw a penalty. It will usually be the result of a blatant disabling of one of their players, as the refs don't seem to notice more subtle fouls against them. In that situation, the Canadiens will lose the offensive-zone faceoff. They will regroup, sometimes after a struggle to get around the Other Team's lone forechecking penalty killer, and Andrei Markov will control the play from the blueline. He will pass to Bergeron for a one-timer, or cross-ice to Cammalleri for a quick shot from the right wing. They may or may not score. If they don't, the second wave of the PP will come on and Glen Metropolit may knock one in off some dogged work behind the Other Team's net.

The play will continue for three periods in this fashion. By the third, the Canadiens will have allowed double the shots they've taken and will have taken at least double the number of penalties the Other Team has. If Price/Halak is on fire, the score may be tied, or the Habs may be a goal ahead. If the goalie has had an ordinary night, the Canadiens will be down by a goal or more. If they're up, the Habs will attempt to defend their zone against the other team's vigorous late attack, often allowing the tying goal with five minutes or less to go while Josh Gorges falls on the goalie during a wild crease scramble. If they're down, they'll belatedly realize they need to step it up and push hard for a tying goal, which they'll sometimes get, depending on whether the Other Team is above or below .500 themselves.

A trip to overtime gives the Canadiens a pretty good chance for two points, as four-on-four play tends to reduce pressure on the Habs forwards along the boards, giving them more room to make a decent pass. If they do prevail, they will hand the Other Team a loser point that will hurt them in the standings.

When the game is over, the Canadiens will have either a close loss or a one-goal/OT win against a sub-.500 opponent. They will have a one-or-two-goal loss against a middle-of-the-pack team, and a sound beating by a contender. Jacques Martin will give a press conference explaining that he's pleased the team kept it close but the players need to raise their compete level to push their game to the next plateau. Mike Cammalleri will tell reporters in an intelligent and thoughtful way that the team's performance isn't good enough and the players need to play with more passion and better execution. Carey Price may sound upset or angry if they lose, completely monotone if they win. The pundits in armchairs at L'Antichambre will hold up newspaper headlines demanding trades and/or Bob Gainey's head on a Centennial commemorative platter and/or explaining why there's a goalie controversy.

[Booche]

Jaro, Jaro Jaro Jaro.................Jaro, Jaro........

[badams]

Easy night for Jaro. He only stopped 38 shots

[Guest Low Roller]

Despite playing about 2 minutes per game, Laraque is somehow injured and won't be playing tonight. Seriously... The guy serves no purpose at this point, and he still has one more year on his contract.

[dave-O]

Is anybody else watching this Minny-Pit game? Latendresse looks like a completely different player with the Wild. He just potted his 4th point of the night and looks ridiculously fast (wtf?) playing with Havlat.

[Northern Wish]

Didn't watch it, but on the highlight reel this morning I had to do a triple take. I thought maybe this was some new rookie phenom named Latendresse.....

[Guest Low Roller]

The talent was always there, but he was completely head-fucked by living like a celebrity in Montreal. He was banging all the hottest broads, which means he partied a lot, which leads me to believe he was burning the candle from both ends.

So far Pouliot has been more consistent than Latendresse as part of the Habs line-up, but hard to argue the success that Latendresse is having in Minny.

[Booche]

What talent did you see? I saw shit for the past couple of years.

A guy who skated like he was on sand, stone hands that couldnt receive a pass nor have any sort of accuracy with his shot. The only thing he had in the offensive end was his once-a-game wrap around attempt.

And he never could see the angles to hit players, let alone catch them to hit them. He was maddening in MTL. I suspect this is an anomaly but we'll see what the future holds because he is still young.

::prays this doesnt turn into another John Leclaire situation::

[dave-O]

I was doing double takes watching the game. He looked like the best skater on the ice in a game featuring Havlat, Crosby, Malkin! I thought he looked atrocious most nights in a Habs uniform and was never really that impressed by him the Q either.

[badams]

FUCK!! We should have kept him and traded Price

[Guest Low Roller]

Purple?

[Northern Wish]

You boys are slow on the draw, just grabbed him off of waivers!

[badams]

You boys are slow on the draw, just grabbed him off of waivers!

He'd be a bench warmer on my team

[dave-O]

He's all yours! haha

[Booche]

God bless you Sean. You're the best!

[Northern Wish]

Look at all of the love!

I should just tank this pool to keep the good vibes flowing.....

[Booche]

You only tank a pool when its already been compromised.

[Northern Wish]

"You wouldn't want to win a tainted pool would you?"

Now go ahead and grab K Quincey. Thats who I dropped to get Lat....

[Booche]

You should 'pick up' Max Lap and Laraque while you're at it.

[Guest Low Roller]

Anyone read this book yet? I just started it this week and I'm loving it.

Amazon link

[TheSloth]

More like 83 years of glory.

[Guest Low Roller]

HA!