Human Extinction Predicted Within 100 Years

[StoneMtn]

Abrupt Climate Change Report:

http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=26231

Human extinction within 100 years warns scientist

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/print/0,1478,3099128a10,00.html

WEDNESDAY, 17 NOVEMBER 2004

By JOHN HENZELL

A top New Zealand researcher is using a prestigious award ceremony in Christchurch to warn that humans face extinction by the end of the century.

Professor Peter Barrett will be presented with the Marsden Medal tonight for his 40-year contribution to Antarctic research, latterly focusing on climate change.

The director of Victoria University's Antarctic Research Centre expects to use his acceptance speech to warn climate change was a major threat to the planet.

"After 40 years, I'm part of a huge community of scientists who have become alarmed with our discovery, that we know from our knowledge of the ancient past, that if we continue our present growth path, we are facing extinction," Barrett said. "Not in millions of years, or even millennia, but by the end of this century."

Barrett won the award – designed to mark lifetime achievement in the sciences – for his research into Antarctica, which began with helping prove New Zealand was once part of the Gondwanaland supercontinent.

He then changed disciplines, to predicting the impact of climate change. The result was a body of research on Antarctic ice sheets "which to our surprise is becoming increasingly relevant to the world as a consequence of global warming".

Barrett's warning underlines comments he made last year that even the Kyoto Protocol on global warming would not be enough to avert a climate disaster. The United States and Australia have refused to adopt Kyoto protocol measures.

"Research on the past Antarctic climate has an ominous warning for the future ..." he said.

"We need an international commitment to an effective solution, if we are to survive the worst consequences of this grandest of all human experiments."

http://www.geo.vuw.ac.nz/antarctic/ARCMarsdenNotes.html

Marsden Medal 2004 - Background comments by Peter Barrett

The basis for the claim that "we are facing the end of civilisation as we know it ... by the end of the century" follows:

The rise in global temperature over the last few decades (thus far just 0.6°C) is already being felt through increased storminess, loss of species, spread of deserts and tropical diseases, and disturbed ecological balance from excess CO2, an example being the Amazon rain forest. The effects will vary widely from place to place, with some areas little affected but others much more so. Why do most scientists see this as human-induced, and with huge consequences for the insurance, transport and agricultural sectors of every economy, not to mention massive loss of life and property, if this trend continues?

The scientific basis for the earth’s climate warming beyond the variations of the last 1,000 years is set out in the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, Cambridge University Press). See also the IPCC website for the 2001 report, especially its 20 page plain-language Executive Summary on the science from Working Party I). IPCC is a joint UNEP-World Meteorological Organisation body that involves over 1000 climate scientists from 100 countries and has based its 3 reports (1990, 1995 and 2001) solely on data from peer-reviewed scientific publications. It reaches its conclusions by debate and consensus, noting the level of uncertainty in its key statements. It is therefore the most authoritative source of information on earth on global warming.

A key finding of IPCC 2001 was that by the end of this century if we continue our present path CO2 levels will have doubled and global average temperature will have risen between 1.4 and 5.8°C (95% probability). Or put another way there is roughly a 50:50 chance that global average temperature will have risen by more than 3.4°C. A more recent study, published in Nature in August, narrowed the uncertainty and upped the figure to ~4°C.This represents a huge shift in climate - the earth last had this temperature was around 35 million years ago, before big ice sheets formed on Antarctica.

Recent scientific articles on climate change published in leading scientific journals, even in the last 3 months, show that the effects of global warming are likely to be worse, not better, than predicted. For example:

the Arctic is warming faster than previously predicted (Journal of Climate, October)

acidity of the oceans (already more acid than 100 years ago by 0.1 Ph units) is projected to increase by >0.3 overall (and by >0.5 in the surface layers) by the end of this century, making carbonate-secreting marine life increasingly more difficult (EOS, September)

West Antarctic ice streams have begun to speed up, increasing sea level rise (Science, September)

On top of these projections there are two more risk elements with catastrophic consequences:

Runaway release of gigatonnes of methane from the huge reservoir of solid methane hydrate beneath the ocean floor (and this has triggered super-warmings in the ancient past) – read Professor Jim Kennett’s Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis, published by the American Geophysical Union.

Sudden lurches in temperature in the North Atlantic region, which in the prehistoric past have dropped temperatures in Western Europe and the east coast of North America by 6°C in a few years. These are documented in US National Academy of Sciences 2001 report “Abrupt Climate Change – inevitable surprises”, and are summarized in Professor Richard Alley’s article in the November issue of Scientific American.

What progress is being made in New Zealand?

The government’s commitment to the Kyoto Protocol and the work of the NZ Government’s Climate Change Office, and as well as recent meetings in Christchurch and Wellington on sustainable energy (use Google) are a good start in addressing the problem, but not enough.

Our National Institute of Atmosphere and Water has a special responsibility for climate research and the results of this are reported on their website, along with an explanation of how the climate system works and the changes to expect in NZ from future warming. To fully understand our present climate system, which includes the southwest Pacific Ocean and Antarctica, we also need to understand its history through paleoclimate studies and modeling, work being carried out by GNS and NIWA, and Canterbury, Otago and Victoria Universities. In particular we are leading research in Antarctic climate history based on our drilling technology and experience and through alliances with overseas colleagues (such as ANDRILL and the Antarctic Climate Evolution project). This leadership gives New Zealand both knowledge and credibility in international forums on climate change issues.

What to do?

Begin by living sustainably ourselves. It’s not so hard! It includes saving electricity

replace tungsten with fluorescent light switch off lights/appliances not being used

saving petrol walk (not drive) for trips less than a km bus/train to work weekdays (less stressful) have a car that is only as big as you need reducing waste - recycle/compost

Read about it. For example see:

BusinessWeek Aug 23 cover “Global warming–why business is taking it so seriously”

National Geographic Sep cover “Global warnings – bulletins from a warmer world”

“Our Final Century” Penguin, 2003, by Sir Martin Rees, Royal Society Research Professor at Cambridge University. He writes “I think the odds are no better than 50-50 that our present civilization on Earth will survive to the end of the present century”. His book concerns much more than just the effects of global warming, with his main concern being the misuse of scientific knowledge. He concludes “In the 21st century, humanity is more at risk than ever before from misapplication of science. And the environmental pressures induced by collective human actions could trigger catastrophes more threatening than any natural hazards”.

Articles in major US and European newpapers are also useful sources, along with magazines like NewScientist and Scientific American, and there are many websites.

Take a course:

Many school and University courses include topics on climate and climate change in their curriculum. Here at Victoria University we have developed a 3 week course on Climate Change and NZ’s Future, involving scientists and policy makers from in and out of the University, and starting January 18, 2005.

Persuade government and business to do more.

The Kyoto Protocol does aim at a sensible target - reducing atmospheric greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels (around 350 ppm, up just 25% from pre-industrial times). Getting mechanisms for doing this right and making them work is everybody’s business.

[jonyak]

the universe may be better for it.

not saying it shoudl happen, just saying.

[Jay Funk Dawg]

"Well I'll tell you this, I'm going to have my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames!" -Jim Morrison

[purple foot]

ha i was just thinking the same thing jaydawg. nice 666th post.

this science is laughable at best. we've got wellll over 100 years left.

[Lazlo]

In the year 2020 when my people attack you'll eat those words.

[Douglas]

your people? you mean...the alien life forms who steal other people's souls just to sell them for nugs and grilled cheese sandwiches and, well, other stuff? hmmm...guess we'll see what happens in 2020!!!

[Lazlo]

Hey now. Souls are a hot comodity to those of us that don't have one

[Douglas]

bluff

[Jay Funk Dawg]

George Bush doesn't give a rats ass... I heard today he is pushing for the creation of more nuclear weponds from a US based radio broadcast. the world is going down.

[Douglas]

you're mistaken...EARTH is going down. The world will always be here

[Jay Funk Dawg]

[Velvet]

If he's right we all have impeccable timing.

[Douglas]

in that case......

I need to purchase some checkered pantolons.......

[paisley]

If he's right we all have impeccable timing.

ha ha, my thoughts earlier exactly

"nice one then." and a pat to myself on the back

subterranean humans coming up, no wonder america's in such a rush to grab up the oil