Election 2011

[Dr_Evil_Mouse]

project democracy

very cool site that applies polling to local ridings. probably not really precise but cool.

It seems the stats are based on the '08 election, but it's at least a quick and handy reminder of how things went last time. The word of advice for my own riding is that it's pretty much hopeless to get the Con incumbent out (no surprises there, given the guy and the riding), so vote by conscience. More up-to-date polls would be handy, though (however unreliable).

[bradm]

I noticed something today when I voted: I'm sure that in previous years, each ballot had a tear-off strip that was removed and put into a separate container before the rest of the ballot was put in the box. This time, the ballots didn't have that. Am I remembering right that they had the strips in the past?

Aloha,

Brad

[phorbesie]

my ballot today had a tear-off strip on it, which was torn off before putting it in the box. i didn't see what she did with the torn-off part.

[ollie]

After I voted I handed my ballot to the volunteer. She tore off the strip and handed the rest back to me and I put it in the ballot box. I didn't notice what she did with the strip.

[jaybone]

After I voted I handed my ballot to the volunteer. She tore off the strip and handed the rest back to me and I put it in the ballot box. I didn't notice what she did with the strip.

Same here.

[d_rawk]

Am I remembering right that they had the strips in the past?

You are certainly recalling that correctly. There is a ballot number tab (strip) that is removed prior to handing the ballot back to you to put in the ballot box.

If I had seen this before voting, I would have paid a bit more attention -- I voted last week in the advance polls. But I didn't notice anything out of the ordinary, so I'd wager that the ballot number was stripped off of mine as well. The person who I was with when I voted assures me that they did tear the strip off of both of our ballots.

[Kanada Kev]

vote'd

[d_rawk]

Thognor - who's tired now?

I recognize that things look one way in SoOn that they don't look like in the rest of the country.

But fuck tired. Just getting rolling. I've seen tired, and it looked like Paul Martin (who I think would be a *great* guy to be my boring father-in-law, certainly nothing personal against him.. we'd go fishing or something).

Libs got smoked. Fuck me, tired.

[SaggyBalls]

Martin's Libs ushered in a lot of economic stability to this country as well as a lot of regulation that kept us afloat the past few years.

Here's to the next several years getting through to all those retards that voted blue for no good reason enough to let them realize that it impacts them personally.

[d_rawk]

.. and killed their own in the process, knives still shiny from the blood.

I am decidedly not happy with the idea of a CPC majority. I am, however, simultaneously somewhat non-plussed but also elated with what amounts to a once-in-a-generation shift in voter sympathies. I'm tired of bagging on the Liberals - if even I'm tired of it by now, it seems to me that they are close to coming home.

It was, interestingly, the Liberals who killed pro-rep, because they viewed it as a threat to their entrenched and perpetual power. They would have benefited from it, this kick of the can. (Not that benefiting from it is the right reason to do have done it .. the right reason to have done it is because it was the right thing to have to done. But that ship sailed. Please don't make me say the words 'democratic deficit' - those words lost all meaning in 2004 when Martin uttered them every second sentence, at the same time as the party brass raped democratic process repeatedly in the mouth.)

The dog-house can't last forever. The Liberal Party eats its own (doesn't, and never, eats its own dog-food .. I mean that it devours its under-performers in a ritualistic celebration of destroying its weak) so it is just a short matter of time to a new leader and new approach. I feel comfortable that it has paid for its sins. It will be interesting to see if it is even still relevant.

This notion that the Big Red Machine is the innocent and lovable under-dog is the product of short-term memory loss and Harper fear. The CPC has had nothing like the scandals that the LPC has had. Given enough time, given the corrosive effect of unchecked power, I'm sure that they will. But they are nowhere close to getting to the fucked-uptidness level that the LPC got to at their height yet. Despite whatever wacky shit Harper has done.

A majority makes it quite likely that the timeline will be sped up, and the CPC will try to cram in whatever batshit crazy things that they can while they can. But you can't blame them for winning. If I had to pick between a CPC majority or a LPC majority, I'd just go to sleep and say fuck it.

[d_rawk]

Everything in Harper's speech seems designed to temper his base, and reduce expectations from the fervent. Or, was it constructed to ameliorate the fears of the populace at large?

The sense that I get is that it was the former, not the latter.

[Davey Boy 2.0]

former, for sure- he doesn't give a flying fack about the [fears of] the populace at large, he's shown that over and over again

[Thorgnor]

No offense D_Rawk, but the NDP with 10? seats, and the Libs around 30-35, means that the Cons don't actually have to ask anyone anything anymore... go ahead and be the opposition, but you haven't actually won anything other than first in line to lose. The opposition in a majority is just the loudest most legitimate group of complainers. This is a loss, not a win, for left-leaning voters.

and yes, Jack seemed tired during the early part of the election, and imo, it was why he got so much support. He was physically ill, no? I didn't say tired meant lame or lazy, just that the NDP was at the end of it's patience, and that this lack of patience would translate into votes. maybe you don't like the word I chose, but I was right.

[d_rawk]

The opposition in a majority is just the loudest most legitimate group of complainers

That is true. I am happy to see the NDP out-strip the Liberals, but it something of a guilty pleasure, and my obvious ongoing contempt is not one of my finer qualities to be certain.

I do think, however, that it is telling of how many Canadians feel. Which is something that they will want to address.

I love the party of Trudeau, and not because I romanticize Trudeau. He had as many faults as anyone.

Jack seemed tired during the early part of the election, and imo, it was why he got so much support. He was physically ill, no? I didn't say tired meant lame or lazy, just that the NDP was at the end of it's patience, and that this lack of patience would translate into votes.

Yeah, cancer. He's good now.

I'd mis-understood the tired bit, entirely and completely. I'd understood you more to be saying hopeless and waiting to be put out to pasture.

In the end, I got the result I expected, but that I am not happy with. But I wouldn't have been any happier with a Liberal majority. Heck, I wouldn't have been happy with any majority at all - NDP included.

There is suddenly a lot of talk of a Liberal and NDP merger. Not just co-operation or coalition, but outright merger. I don't think most on either side want to see that happen in an equivalent to the unite-the-right Peter McKay sells out the PCs way.

The NDP still has a soul. The Liberals do not. This is by design, and not one of my regular insults to the party. The Liberals are the big tent, pragmatic party - and pragmatism demands that you shift with the winds as the winds demand. The NDP actually stakes out a moral position and stays there unflinchingly. Which is fine if you happen to agree with them. If they get 10 seats from that position, they get 10 seats. If they get 100+ seats from that position, great! This will change - electoral success, and the promise of more, will erode the party's moral center.

This one of many reasons that I believe in electoral reform. More parties who can actually say something, mean it, and stick to it and still get seats. As much as I don't identify with much of western Canada's concerns, and even if I think that they are simply backwards and wrong on a lot of issues (my own hubris), I think they got sunk with the unite the right deal. They no longer have any (Parliamentary) voice, but their numbers are legion.

[Thorgnor]

So your problem with Harper is that he's going to stick to his guns, and your favorite thing about the NDP is that they have guns to stick to, but you don't like that the Liberals are willing to switch weapons? Ya'lost me.

[d_rawk]

So your problem with Harper is that he's going to stick to his guns, and your favorite thing about the NDP is that they have guns to stick to, but you don't like that the Liberals are willing to switch weapons? Ya'lost me.

I did lose you. My problem with Harper is that I don't like his targets. I like the NDP because I do like what they are aiming at, and want them to hit those targets. I don't have a problem with the Liberals per-se, it goes back and forth, as does where they are pointing their weapon at any given time (which, generally boils down to campaigning from the left, and governing from the right). It amounts to pointing at the bank robber, getting my nod of approval, but then moving the gun and pulling the trigger at my girlfriend's head. Nothing wrong with that, I guess. But it is certainly not my cup of tea.

Edited May 3, 2011 by Guest

[phishtaper]

these analogies are making me uncomfortable ...

[Thorgnor]

I'm still confused. Your fear seems to be that Harper campaigned from the right, and won't likely govern from the left, but that the Libs were able to switch. While your hope seems to be that the NDP will be able to force the Conservatives to be more left-leaning in practice... again, ya'lost me.

In a perfect world...

[d_rawk]

I think we are just talking about slightly different things.

While your hope seems to be that the NDP will be able to force the Conservatives to be more left-leaning in practice

I have no such illusions, and don't remember suggesting that I believed that to be the case.

I was talking about the suggestions of a unite-the-left (generously included the Liberals in 'left' here, because that seems to be the territory that they are currently occupying) party cannibalism, and why I think it is a bad idea and the wrong solution to the actual problem.

There is certainly room and need for a pragmatic party that goes where the votes are and governs without any over-arching philosophical stance. If it didn't exist, we would have to invent it. We have it in the LPC. But the internal structure, and the guiding ambition (have power, whatever that takes) are incompatible with the progressive, and stubborn, ideology - and it is that - of the NDP (do the right thing, even if unpopular). If we didn't have the NDP, we'd have to re-invent them too.

these analogies are making me uncomfortable ...

Just pretend that they are water guns :laugh:

[phishtaper]

Just pretend that they are water guns :laugh:

Hillside won't like that either.

[Davey Boy 2.0]

phishtaper : keepin it real!

[Kanada Kev]

http://www.fairvote.ca/en/Canadians-cheated-again-by-voting-system

Canadians cheated again by voting system says Fair Vote Canada

For immediate release

May 3, 2011

Canada’s national citizens’ movement for voting reform has released analysis of Tuesday’s federal election results showing that the outcome does not accurately reflect the way Canadians voted.

“The Conservative party increased their vote percentage by less than two points,†says Fair Vote Canada (FVC) President Bronwen Bruch, “but this allowed them to win 24 more seats than in 2008, when they were already over-represented. Stephen Harper calls this a ‘decisive endorsement’, but we call it a rip-off.â€

At the time of writing, these were the actual seats won and leading for each party:

CON 167, NDP 102, LIB 34, BQ 4, GREEN 1

If the seats were won in proportion to the votes that were cast, the numbers would look like this:

CON 122, NDP 95, LIB 59, BQ 19, GREEN 13

According to these results, the Conservatives have won 54.22% of the seats with only 39.62% of the votes, one of the least legitimate majorities in Canadian history.

“This is a classic phony majority,†said Bruch, “and leaves us with a government that is completely unaccountable to Parliament. As long as they maintain rigid party discipline, nothing bad can happen to them for four years.â€

The FVC analysis shows that the NDP, historically under-represented by Canada’s winner-take-all voting system, is now over-represented by seven seats, thanks to the “orange wave†that vaulted them into second place.

The Liberal Party, on the other hand, traditionally over-represented to the degree that they were regarded as Canada’s “natural governing partyâ€, is now the chief victim of the voting system. While their vote percentage fell by less than 8%, they lost more than half their seats.

The Bloc Québècois, which has always previously been over-represented because their votes are concentrated in one region, has been decimated. Although their vote percentage has collapsed, they should still be entitled to 19 seats, but they are winning or leading in only four seats.

The Green Party is ecstatic to have finally won a single seat, but they actually received enough votes across the country to win 13 seats.

“Across the country,†added Fair Vote Canada Executive Director Wayne Smith, “vote splits between the Liberals and NDP allowed the Conservatives to steal seats. Once again, our antiquated voting system has given us the wrong government, a government that most of us voted against.

“It is truly time to change our voting system. If we want politics to be different, we need a vote that makes a difference.â€

[d_rawk]

Dang, conversation sure dropped off once the election results were processed.

Regarding whether or not the opposition can veer the Conservatives leftwards or not, I'm increasingly of the opinion that it is a non-issue. Harper's Conservatives aren't going to allow their neo-liberal (small l) economic agenda (his interest) to be thwarted by a social-conservative agenda from the base. But they will throw some crumbs. Religious exemption for same-sex marriage - already the case under the Charter, depending on whether you share my interpretation, and almost certainly already the case under the Civil Marriage Act - in that nobody may be forced to endorse a marriage that is contrary to their religious beliefs, but codify that as explicit law and pretend that you did something substantive - that sort of thing.

Abortion is going to creep up over and over, because the social-right sees it as an issue of the state condoning mass-murder. But it isn't going to be given serious attention by the party leadership, and it wouldn't survive the senate, just like the last time.

Harper will pursue his economic liberalism, the so-cons will push against him looking for scraps, the blue (L/l)iberals will continue their support, the red Tories (can we still legitimately call them Tories?) will continue to shake their heads, the Liberal party proper will be forced to re-group and get their sh*t together, the NDP will both gain legitimacy but also, from being on the radar, gain a number of new detractors - they are just that little bit too much to the left to spook people, and they have that whole .. well, there is something to make everyone uncomfortable in the NDP. Gays? Hell yeah, love 'em. Women? Hell yeah, more power to 'em. Diversity? Bring it! Religion? Strongly! Wait, what?

Although I suspect that they will begin to gradually occupy that mushy-middle area formerly occupied by the Liberals this next while. Somebody has got to do it.

Speaking of the abortion issue (gah) - was there a rally on the hill about that today?

[d_rawk]

Speaking of the abortion issue (gah) - was there a rally on the hill about that today?

There was.

[color:purple]Fun times.

[Thorgnor]

The air in my sails went up like hydrogen.

I agree mostly. Those like me who have wanted to support the NDP in the past will either have an excellent opportunity to show support in the next election, one day in the far reaches of the future, or we'll be shown why we didn't have the trust in them in the first place. Hard-core, do or die, no reason but Reason, Liberals, will try to re-group, but in my opinion, there is no place for "Liberalism" in politics any more... it's washed up. Democracy means voice, Liberal means I get to decide what I mean by liberal and who gets free.

Green may fuck shit up if there is any opportunity for voice now. They could easily sneak through the back next time and grab a ton of seats by coalescing the mid-right and centre with the radical left, and eco-centric. Which could be a juggernaut for ever. Or not. who knows.

All I'm left with, pun intended, is dread for what may come and that's sure to cloud my vision.